新疆克拉玛依市医疗机构卫生人员需求预测分析

目的：探讨新疆克拉玛依市2006-2010年医疗机构提供医疗卫生服务以及社会发展情况，测算2011-2015年医疗机构的卫生技术人员数量和机构，为合理配置与规划医疗机构的发展提供有效的依据。方法根据2006-2010的卫生服务需求数据，利用等维灰数递补动态模型预测2011-2015年的卫生服务需求数据，再利用卫生服务需求法计算2011-2015年的医生数，最后利用相应的指标推算其他人员的数据量。结果根据卫生服务需求法测算2011年克市医疗卫生机构总人数应为3508名，其中医生926名、护士1111名，2015年为3663名，其中医生967名、护士1160名；截止2010年底卫生人员是2987名，与2011年测算的卫生人员总数相差521名，卫生技术人员2010年数量与2015年测算的卫生技术人员相差643名。结论克市医疗机构卫生人员总量不足，卫生人员结构不合理，工勤人员比例偏高，其他卫生技术人员比例偏低；2011-2015年克市卫生技术人才引进工作压力大。

An analysis on the predictive demand for health care workforce in health care facilities in the city of Karamay in Xinj iang

Objective The number and structure of health care workforce in health care facilities over 2011 to 2015 in Karamay were predicted to provide the information of the rational allocation and scientific plan-ning for health care facilities′development,by analyzing the condition of health services provided by health care facilities and social development from 2006 to 2010 in Karamay.Methods Based on health services de-mand data during 2006 to 2010,a dimension gray recurrence dynamic model was developed to predict the health services demand from 2011 to 2015 in Karamay.Subsequently the calculation method of health serv-ices demand was used to estimate the number of physicians.Finally the corresponding indices were applied to obtain the number of the other workers.Results The estimated total number of health care workforce by 2011 was 3508,and among whom physicians and nurses were 926 and 1 111,respectively.The projected total number of health care workforce by 2015 was 3663,and those of physicians and nurses were 967 and 1160,respectively.At the end of 2010,the number of health care workforce was 2987,which was 521 less than that for the year 2011 and 643 less than the one for the year 2015.Conclusion There was a shortage of health care professionals in health care facilities in Karamay.As the number of health care pro-fessionals was relatively low,while that of the other workers was relatively high,so the structure of the health care personnel was not reasonable in Karamay.Thus,Karamay is facing the challenge of the intro-duction of health care professionals in the following five years.