苯接触评估:BAYES统计学的应用研究

目的]用BAYES统计学方法估算车间空气中挥发性气体的区域浓度并检验其正确性。方法]以某橡胶厂车间空气中苯浓度的历史监测资料为基础,结合专家主观概率及物理模型,进行BAYES统计推断,估算各岗位的区域浓度,并以现场测定数据对评估结果进行检验。结果]估算的区域浓度最高的3个岗位为打浆、夹布机成型、搪浆;有7个岗位的区域浓度估算结果与8个岗位的现场采样结果无明显差别,而历史测量资料只有4个岗位的估算结果与现场采样结果无差别。结论]BAYES统计学方法能降低变异,更有效地评估车间空气中挥发性有机物的区域浓度水平。

Application of Bayesian Statistics in Benzene Exposure Assessment

Objective] To assess the area concentrations of volatile organic vapor in workshops with Bayesian statistics and check them with field measurements. Methods] On the basis of historical area benzene concentrations in a rubber factory, Bayesian Statistics was used associating with expertise and physical model to estimate the area concentrations of different work stations. The results were tested with the field measurements. Results] The three working stations with the highest assessed levels were slurry-making,cloth-lining-assembling and slurry-applying. Their were 7 work stations where no significant difference was found between concetrations estimating with the Bayesian statistics and those of field measurements,whereas compared between historical and field measurement,there were only 4. Conclusion] Area concentrations of volatile organic vapor assessed by Bayesian Statistics were closer to the field measurements than historical data.