2015年2月全国突发公共卫生事件及需关注的传染病风险评估

目的评估2015年2月国内外突发公共卫生事件及需要关注的传染病风险。方法根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,并通过视频会议形式邀请各省(直辖市、自治区)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。结果预计2月份将是全年突发公共卫生事件报告数最少的月份。2015年2月,西非埃博拉出血热病例输入我国的风险依然存在,但在我国发生较大规模扩散的可能性极低;我国内地将继续出现人感染H7N9禽流感散发病例,不排除发生其他可感染人类的禽流感散发病例;近期全球多个国家及地区动物间禽流感疫情活跃;流行性感冒等呼吸道传染病将出现季节性升高;诺如病毒所致的腹泻病23月仍可能继续出现暴发疫情;猩红热疫情高于2014年同期,但较2014年12月已出现下降,学校和托幼机构陆续放假,预计病例数将会继续减少;麻疹疫情高于2014年同期,且较2014年12月继续上升,部分省份发生暴发疫情,形势不容乐观;中东呼吸综合征在沙特等地仍持续有散发病例报告,我国存在输入风险,但进一步播散的风险极低;非职业性一氧化碳中毒仍需进一步关注。结论 2015年2月我国的突发公共卫生事件及传染病疫情发生态势与往年相似,处于全年较低水平;需重点关注西非埃博拉出血热疫情,我国人感染H7N9禽流感疫情,流感,诺如病毒所致的腹泻病,同时关注猩红热、麻疹及中东呼吸综合征输入我国的风险。

Risk assessment of public health emergency and communicable diseases concerned in China,February 2015

Objective To assess the risk of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China in February 2015. Methods An internet based expert counsel was conducted to analyze the surveillance data of public health emergencies and priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels, and the experts in all the provincial centers for disease control and prevention attended this video conference. Results According to the analysis of the previous surveillance data and incidence trend of public health emergencies in recent months, it is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies would be low in February. The risk of importation of Ebola virus disease (EVD) to China still exists, but the possibility of EVD's transmission in China is very low. The sporadic human infection with H7N9 virus would continue to occur, and there might be reports of sporadic human infections with other avian influenza viruses. The incidence of seasonal influenza and other respiratory diseases would increase seasonally. The outbreaks caused by norovirus and other gastroenteritis viruses might still occur in February and March. The incidence of scarlet fever is higher than that during the same period in 2014, but is lower than that in December 2014, and would keep to decline during the school's winter vocation. Measles outbreaks were reported in some provinces in January. The incidence of measles has kept rising since December 2014, and now it is higher compared with the same period in 2014. Non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning would continue to occur. The sporadic cases of MERS-CoV are still being reported from Saudi Arabia and some other countries. The risk of imported MERS still exists in China, but the spread of the epidemic might not occur. Conclusion It is predicted that the incidence of national public health emergencies or communicable diseases would be low in China in February 2015, similar to that in same periods of previous years. Close attention should be paid to the EVD epidemic in western Africa, human infection with avian influenza virus, influenza and norovirus infection, as well as scarlet fever, measles and the risk of MERS to China.