2015年1月全国突发公共卫生事件及需关注的传染病风险评估

目的 评估2015年1月国内外突发公共卫生事件及需要关注传染病的风险. 方法 根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,并通过视频会议形式邀请省(直辖市、自治区)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估. 结果 根据近期传染病和突发公共卫生事件监测数据,结合既往突发公共卫生事件发生情况及传染病流行特点分析,预计1月将是全年突发公共卫生事件报告数较少的月份之一,预计全国总报告事件数和病例数将较去年12月有所下降.2015年1月,埃博拉出血热病例输入我国的风险依然存在,在我国发生较大规模扩散的可能性极低;我国内地将继续出现人感染H7N9禽流感散发病例,不排除其他可感染人类的禽流感散发病例报告;流行性感冒等呼吸道传染病将出现季节性升高;目前正值诺如病毒等病毒性腹泻病发病高峰期,1-2月可能仍将出现暴发疫情;猩红热疫情已达冬季最高峰,随着学校和托幼机构放假,预计病例数将会有所减少;因燃煤取暖导致的非职业性一氧化碳中毒事件仍将持续一段时间. 结论 2015年1月我国的突发公共卫生事件及传染病疫情发生态势与往年相似,处于全年较低水平;需关注埃博拉出血热、人禽流感、流行性感冒、诺如病毒感染性腹泻病、猩红热等传染病疫情以及非职业性一氧化碳中毒引发的公共卫生风险.

Risk assessment of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China,January 2015

Objective To assess the risk of public health emergencies and communicable diseases concerned in the mainland of China in January 2015. Methods An internet based expert counsel was conducted to analyze the surveillance data of public health emergencies and priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels, and the experts in all the provincial centers for disease control and prevention attended this video conference. Results According to the analysis of recent and previous surveillance data of communicable diseases and public health emergencies, it is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies or communicable diseases would be low in January 2015, lower than that in December 2014. The risk of importation of Ebola virus disease (EVD) to China still exists, but the possibility of EVD's transmission in China is very low. The sporadic human infection with H7N9 virus would continue to occur, and there might be reports of sporadic human infections with other avian influenza viruses. The incidence of seasonal influenza and other respiratory diseases would increase seasonally. Now it is the season of infection of norovirus and other gastroenteritis viruses, and the outbreaks might still occur in January and February. The incidence peak of scarlet fever has occurred, the case number would decline as the coming of school's winter vacation. Non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning would continue to occur. Conclusion It is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies or communicable diseases in January 2015 would be low, similar to that in January in previous years. It is necessary to strengthen surveillance and preparedness for EVD, human infection of avian influenza virus, seasonal influenza, norovirus infection, scarlet fever, and non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning.