Natural fertility in northeastern Mexico

BACKGROUND: The aims of this study were as follows: 1) to describe the fertility of a sample of Mexican women (> or =45 years of age, married, not using any family planning methods, and residing in the Mexican state of Nuevo León); 2) to determine whether or not the distribution of completed family size fits the negative binomial distribution, as in other populations studied in the world, and 3) to assess the association between fertility and 10 explanatory variables. METHODS: A sample of 410 women was interviewed at and selected from seven medical units of the Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social (IMSS). The women were grouped by their year of birth (1896-1925 and 1926-1955) and birthplace persons whose four grandparents were born in northeastern Mexico (NE) and outside northeastern Mexico (Not-NE)]. A binomial negative distribution analysis was assessed. Multiple linear regression was used to assess association between fertility (transformed by the use of inverse hyperbolic sines) and 10 explanatory variables, including age at marriage, heterozygosity, individual admixture, wife's education, husband's education, wife's occupation, husband's occupation, and couple's residence zone, birth year, and birthplace. RESULTS: Completed fertility was only associated with age at marriage. This population showed a fertility pattern similar to those described in Venezuelan and Brazilian populations in 1950 and 1940, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that before worldwide family planning programs, fertility was determined mainly by natural selection forces.