时间序列模型在胆结石月发病率预测中的应用

目的在时间序列模型理论的基础上,通过时间序列模型对海西州地区的胆结石月发病率进行研究,建立相应的ARIMA模型和ARCH模型并进行预测和评价。方法通过EViews软件对青海海西州地区胆结石发病例监测登记资料进行统计分析,利用原数据建立ARIMA模型和ARCH模型,并通过所建模型对胆结石月发病率的变化趋势和原始序列的预测,确定所建ARIMA模型和ARCH模型的优劣性。结果 ARCH模型的预测结果较ARIMA模型理想,适合描述海西州地区胆结石月发病率的变动趋势。结论 ARCH模型可作为海西州地区胆结石月发病率的预测模型,且通过此模型可帮助人们了解胆结石月发病率的发展趋势,有重点地对胆结石进行健康防治工作,有效地降低胆结石对人们的危害。

Application of time series model in the prediction of the month incidence rate of gall-stone

Objective To buid ARIMA and ARCH models on the basis of time series model theory,and forecast the gall-stone month incidence in Haixizhou region.Methods EViews software was used to analyze the gall-stone month incidence in Haixizhou region,ARIMA and ARCH models were built to forecast the variation trend of gall-stone month incidence.Results The predicted result of ARCH model was much fitted than that of ARIMA model and the ARCH model was much fitted to describe the dynamic characteristics of gall-stone mont...