老年人养老规划对社区养老服务需求与利用影响研究

目的：分析养老规划对城镇老年人社区养老服务需求和利用的影响，为老年人社区养老服务供给政策的针对性和有效性提供依据。方法：利用中国老年社会追踪调查(CLASS)2018年数据，建立Probit模型和倾向值匹配法(PSM)分析。结果：我国城镇老年人的社区养老服务需求和利用水平较低；养老规划对城镇老年人社区养老服务利用具有显著的挤压效应，对需求具有显著的促进效应；不同养老规划内容对城镇老年人社区养老服务需求和利用影响不同，流动资金和风险防范类规划的影响更大；养老规划对城镇老年人社区养老服务利用的挤压效应和对需求的促进效应在低受教育水平老年人中更强。结论：政府应当重视养老资源供需不对接问题，提高社区养老服务质量和效率，关注老年人的需求特点，提供与老年人需求对等的养老服务，关注老年人风险防范需求。

Influence of financial planning for the elderly on the demand and utilization of community-based care services

Objective:To analyze the impact of financial planning on the demand and utilization of community-based care services for the urban elderly, and to make sure the community-based care service policies are well-targeted and effective. Methods:Make a Probit model and conduct the propensity scale matching model (PSM)on the basis of data obtained from China Longitudinal Aging Social Survey (CLASS)in 2018. Results:Both the demand for and utilization of community-based care services in Chinese urban areas are low; and the financial planning has a significant squeezing effect on the utilization of community-based care servicestogether with a significant boosting effect on demand; contents of elderly financial planning influence the demand for and utilization of community-based care services among urban elderly people, with greater effects of cash and risk prevention types of planning; the squeezing effect of financial planning on the utilization of community-based care services among urban elderly people and the boosting effect on demand are more noticeable among low-educated seniors. Conclusion:The government should pay attention to the mismatch between supply and demand of community-based care resources, and improve the quality and efficiency of community-based care services, meanwhile take into consideration of characteristics of the elderly so that equivalent services are provided and the risk prevention needs of the elderly are taken care of.