用季节流行现象预测全国猩红热疫情

目的 运用疾病流行中的“Z-D现象”理论对全国猩红热疫情进行预测,为猩红热疫情暴发流行的控制工作提供理论依据.方法 分析利用全国1987 - 2011年猩红热疫情资料,构建外推性预测模型,预测2012年猩红热趋势.结果结果表明,最佳截取点的月累计百分位数和流行年前兆升降比之间呈负相关(R=0.33,P=0.05),回顾性模型的预测结果与实际情况进行比较,符合率达到71％.验证性外推预测结果较好,提示2012年猩红热疫情呈下降趋势.结论 根据本年度的猩红热发病数据,可以较好地预测猩红热下一流行年的流行趋势,为猩红热的预防控制提供理论支撑.

Prediction on Epidemic of Scarlet Fever in China With Zeng-Ding Phenomenon

Objective To forecast the epidemic situation of scarlet fever in China by using the theory of Zeng-Ding phenomenon,and provide evidence for the prevention and control of the scarlet fever outbreak.Methods The incidence data of scarlet fever from 1987-2011 in China were analyzed,with the extrapolation model constructed to predict the scarlet fever in 2012.Results Correlation analysis showed the coefficient was negative(R=0.33,P=0.05) between the monthly cumulative percentage and predictive ratio of increase to decrease in incidence rate at the best cut-off point.The model prediction was good,and the accordance rate was 71% by comparing with the actual line.It is propted that the epidemic of scarlet fever in 2012 would show a downward trend.Conclusions Based on Zeng-Ding phenomenon,the trend of next year could be predicted by using the incidence data of scarlet in the previous year to provide a theoretical evidence for prevention and control of scarlet fever.