2015-2017年长江江苏段流域螺情时空分析

目的　分析2015–2017年长江江苏段流域钉螺时空分布现状，为江苏省消除血吸虫病、制定精准防治策略和措施提供依据。方法　2015–2017年在长江江苏段流域南京、镇江市和扬州市江滩中选取75块进行抽样调查，对3年各项螺情指标进行统计分析，采用空间自相关分析、核密度分析和“热点分析”工具探索钉螺时空分布及变化趋势。结果　2015–2017年长江江苏段流域钉螺平均密度存在空间自相关。扬州市活螺数、活螺密度整体下降，但2016年稍有上升。核密度及热点分析均发现长江江苏段流域活螺分布热点区域为扬州市和镇江市交界江滩附近区域。结论　江苏省长江流域钉螺分布存在空间自相关且存在“热点区域”，江滩钉螺监测工作仍然不可忽视。

Spatio-temporal analysis of Oncomelania hupensis along Jiangsu section of the Yangtze River from 2015 to 2017

Objective　To investigate the spatio?temporal characteristics of Oncomelania hupensis snails along the Jiangsu section of the Yangtze River, so as to provide evidence for eliminating schistosomiasis and formulating precision control measures in Jiangsu Province. Methods　A total of 75 marshlands were randomly sampled from Nanjing, Zhenjiang and Yangzhou cities along the Jiangsu section of the Yangtze River basin, and the spatio?temporal distribution and changing patterns of O. hupensis snails were investigated using the spatial autocorrelation analysis, kernel density analysis and hotspot analysis during the period from 2015 through 2017. Results　There was a spatial autocorrelation in the mean snail density along the Jiangsu section of the Yangtze River basin during the period from 2015 through 2017. The number of living snails and the density of living snails showed an overall decline in Yangzhou City; however, both showed a slight increase in 2016. Kernel density analysis and hotspot analysis showed that the hotspots of living snails were located in the regions neighboring the marshlands at the Yangzhou?Zhenjiang boundary areas along the Jiangsu section of the Yangtze River basin. Conclusion　There is a spatial autocorrelation in the snail distribution with hotspots along the Jiangsu section of the Yangtze River basin, and the surveillance of snails should not be neglected in the marshlands in Jiangsu Province.