2008-2015年广西手足口病流行病学特征及时空聚集性分析

目的 分析广西2008-2015年手足口病的流行病学特征，并重点探究该病的时空聚集性，为手足口病的精准防控提供理论依据。方法 从疾病监测信息报告系统获取以县区为单位的手足口病数据，采用Excel 2010对数据进行处理，描述疾病的三间分布；利用SaTScan 9.4.2软件探测广西手足口病时空聚集性，并比较不同风险人口数为最大空间扫描半径的探测效果，从中选择最优模式。结果 广西2008-2015年各市均有手足口病病例报告，8年累计报告病例1 360 857例，年平均发病率为359.61/10万，以4~7月为发病高峰，9~11月为次高峰；男性发病率高于女性，所有病例中0~5岁儿童占92.28%。不同风险人口数最大空间扫描半径得到的探测效果不同，选择最优模式进行分析（以10%人口数为最大空间扫描半径），南宁市和柳州市的各县区分别为主要的一类聚集区和二类聚集区，且聚集时间基本集中在每年的3~7月。结论 广西手足口病持续处于高流行态势，且存在时空聚集性，应在高发时间重点加强南宁市和柳州市各县区的手足口病防控。

Epidemiological characteristics and temporal-spatial clustering of hand,foot and mouth disease in Guangxi from 2008 to 2015

Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and temporal-spatial clustering of hand,foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in Guangxi from 2008 to 2015,and to provide evidence for the prevention and control of the disease.Methods Surveillance information of HFMD at the county level was collected from Chinese National Notifiable Infectious Disease Report System.The epidemiological characteristics were described using Excel 2010.SaTScan 9.4.2 was used to detect the potential temporal-spatial clusters.By setting different population percentages as the maximum spatial cluster sizes in the analysis,multiple models were assessed to select the optimal one.Results From 2008 to 2015,all cities in Guangxi had reported HFMD cases,a total of 1 360 857 cases were reported with an annual incidence of 359.61 per 10 000.The main peak incidence was observed from April to July,followed by a second peak from September to November.Incidence rate of male was higher than female,children aged 0-5 years accounted for 92.28％ of the total cases.The effect of setting the population percentage as the maximum spatial cluster size varied in different models,among which 10％ of the population at risk was the best mode.The counties of Nanning and Liuzhou were the main grade-Ⅰ gathering areas and grade-Ⅱ gathering areas,respectively.The gathering time were mainly detected from March to July.Conclusions Incidence of HFMD was still high in Guangxi.HFMD had obvious aggregation in space and time.We should strengthen prevention and control of HFMD in Nanning and Liuzhou during gathering time.