| 灰色模型在预测天津市肠道传染病发病趋势中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 盛艳霞,徐娜,霍飞,刘长娜. 灰色模型在预测天津市肠道传染病发病趋势中的应用[J]. 职业与健康, 2011, 27(1): 16-17 |
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| 作者姓名： | 盛艳霞 徐娜 霍飞 刘长娜 |
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| 作者单位： | 天津市疾病预防控制中心信息室,300011 |
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| 基金项目： | 天津市疾病预防控制中心科技基金项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 目的探讨预测天津市肠道传染病发病率的灰色模型，为天津市肠道传染病防制工作提供科学的参考依据。方法利用2004--2009年天津市肠道传染病疫情资料建立GM（1，1）预测模型，进行模型评价，并对未来几年进行趋势预测。结果天津市肠道传染病发病率GM（1，1）模型为：Yr＋1=-1532．39e^-0.1125t＋1681．68，拟合精度合格。结论模型能够用于预测天津市肠道传染病发病率的短期趋势，未来3年天津市肠道传染病将呈缓慢下降趋势。
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| 关 键 词： | 灰色模型 GM（1，1） 肠道传染病 预测 |
Application of Grey Model to Forecast the Incidence Trend of Intestinal Infectious Diseases |
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| SHENG Yan-xia,XU Na,HUO Fei,LIU Chang-na. Application of Grey Model to Forecast the Incidence Trend of Intestinal Infectious Diseases[J]. Occupation and Health, 2011, 27(1): 16-17 |
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| Authors: | SHENG Yan-xia XU Na HUO Fei LIU Chang-na |
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| Affiliation: | SHENG Yan-xia,XU Na,HUO Fei,LIU Chang-na(Tianjin Centers for Disease Control and Prevention,Tianjin,300011,China) |
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| Abstract: | [Objective]To explore the incidence forecasting of intestinal infectious disease in Tianjin City with the grey model,and provide the references for the intestinal infectious disease control.[Methods]Based on the incidence data of intestinal infectious diseases in Tianjin City from 2004-2009,the grey GM(1,1) forecast model was established,evaluated and adopted to forecast the incidence of intestinal infectious diseases in next few years[Results]GM(1,1) model of the incidence of intestinal infectious diseases... |
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| Keywords: | Grey model GM(1 1) Intestinal infectious disease Forecast |
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