Prognosis of Epilepsy: A Preliminary Report of a Multi-Institutional Study in Japan

• 1. ) A multi–institutional study on the long–term prognosis of epilepsy was started in Japan in 1975 by a research team consisting of seven psychiatric and three pediatric institutions. The investigation of the outcome of epileptic seizures and EEG findings 10 years after the onset (subject: onset of illness later than 1961; first visit between 1964 and 1966), five years after the onset (subjects: onset later than 1966; first visit 1968—-71), three years after the onset (subjects: onset later than 1968; first visit 1970–73) were performed in September 1976.
• 2. ) The rate of the adult epileptic cases which were followed up for more than 10 years was 11.6%, for more than five years 23.9%, and those of children epileptics, 10-year follow-up 30.4%, five-year follow-up 50.6%. The rates of successful follow-up by means of mailing inquiries in adult and children cases were 53.3% and 56.2%, respectively.
• 3. ) The seizure disappeared in 55% and 68% of the adult cases with generalized convulsive seizures within five and 10 years, respectively. In the patients with psycho–motor seizures, the number of improved cases were almost equal to or slightly less than that of aggravated cases. Among the children cases, the outcome of cases with absence was the best (disappeared in 100%), worst in cases with West and Lennox syndromes (disappeared 63% and 50%, respectively), and those of generalized convulsive seizures (disappeared 82%) and psychomotor seizures (disappeared 65%) in between.
• 4. ) As for the clinico–electroencephalo–graphic correlations, about half of the adult and approximately 70% of the children cases showed a parallel change in clinical seizure frequency and EEG pictures. In most of the non–parallel cases, aggravation of EEG abnormalities was observed despite of the clinical improvement.
• 5. ) The methodological problems on the study of prognosis of patients with epilepsy were discussed.

This study was carried out by the Group for Study on the Prognosis of Epilepsy in Japan chaired by T. Okuma, M.D. Investigators collaborating in this study are listed as follows: T. Sato, M.D. and H. Fukushima, M.D., Hirosaki University Hospital; H. Kumashiro, M.D., K. Maruko, M.D., Y. Takahashi, M.D. and T. Ono, M.D., Fukushima Medical College Hospital; Y. Fukuyama, M.D., Tokyo Women's Medical College Hospital; T. Seki, M.D., Y. Kawahara, M.D. and M. Hirose, M.D., Keio University Hospital; S. Kamiya, M.D., K. Minami, M.D., S. Kita, M.D. and S. Okamoto, M.D., Kansai Medical College Hospital; S. Ohtahara, M.D., Y. Yamatogi, M.D., Y. Ohtsuka, M.D., E. Oka, M.D. and S. Kanda, M.D., Okayama University Hospital; K. Hosokawa, M.D. and T. Ku goh, M.D., ditto; H. Yamada, M.D., H. Yoshida, M.D. and H. Ninomiya, M.D., Kyushu University Hospital; s. U &, M.D., T. Shirakawa, M.D., Y. Nakazawa, M.D. and K. Inanaga, M.D., Kurume University Hospital.