Prognostic value of exercise echocardiography in 2,632 patients > or = 65 years of age

OBJECTIVES: We sought to determine the prognostic value of exercise echocardiography in the elderly. BACKGROUND: Limited data exist regarding the prognostic value of exercise testing in the elderly, a population which may be less able to exercise and is at increased risk of cardiac death. METHODS: Follow-up (2.9 +/- 1.7 years) was obtained in 2,632 patients > or = 65 years who underwent exercise echocardiography. RESULTS: There were 1,488 (56%) men and 1,144 (44%) women (age 72 +/- 5 years). The rest ejection fraction was 56 +/- 9%. Rest wall motion abnormalities were present in 935 patients (36%). The mean work load was 7.7 +/- 2.3 metabolic equivalents (METs) for men and 6.5 +/- 1.9 METs for women. New or worsening wall motion abnormalities developed with stress in 1,082 patients (41%). Cardiac events included cardiac death in 68 patients and nonfatal myocardial infarction in 80 patients. The addition of the exercise electrocardiogram to the clinical and rest echocardiographic model provided incremental information in predicting both cardiac events (chi-square = 77 to chi-square = 86, p = 0.003) and cardiac death (chi-square = 71 to chi-square = 86, p < 0.0001). The addition of exercise echocardiographic variables, especially the change in left ventricular end-systolic volume with exercise and the exercise ejection fraction, further improved the model in terms of predicting cardiac events (chi-square = 86 to chi-square = 108, p < 0.0001) and cardiac death (chi-square = 86 to chi-square = 99, p = 0.004). CONCLUSIONS: Exercise echocardiography provides incremental prognostic information in patients > or = 65 years of age. The best model included clinical, exercise testing and exercise echocardiographic variables.