中山市鼻咽癌发病率及死亡率时间序列分析与预测

目的 研究中山市鼻咽癌的发病率与死亡率的流行学特点。方法 以中山市鼻咽癌的发病率与死亡率调查资料为样本，应用SAS统计软件对鼻咽癌的发病率与死亡率进行时间序列分析与预测。结果 1970－1989年男女鼻咽癌发病率均呈现无趋势的随机波动并且仍继续保持下去，到2000年分别保持在20．78／10万左右和9．03／10万左右。1970－1989年男女鼻咽部死亡率均呈现下降趋势并且未来将继续保持下去，到2000年将分别下降到12．3／10万左右和4．71／10万左右。结论 中山市男女鼻咽癌发病率保持在一个月相对稳定的水平，死亡率则呈下降趋势。鼻咽癌发病因素相对比较稳定，受社会和环境因素的影响较少，鼻咽癌对人群健康的威胁逐步减轻。

Analysis and Forecast of Incidence and Mortality of Nasopharynx Cancer by Time Series in Zhongshan City

Objective To study the epidemiology characteristic of incidence and mortality of nasopharynx cancer. Methods By selecting the investigated datum of mortality of nasopharynx cancer in Zhongshan City as sample, SAS software is used to analyse and forecast the mortality rate by time series. Results Incidence rate of both male and female nasopharynx cancer showed the fluctuation of non trend random from 1970 to 1989 . The trend will be kept in future. This will be kept in about 20.78/10 5 and 9.03/10 5 in 2000. Mortality rate of both male and female nasopharynx cancer showed the fallen trend from 1970 to 1989 and the trend would be kept in future. This will be down to 12.13/10 5 and 4.71/10 5 in 2000. Conclusion Incidence rate of both male and female nasopharynx cancers keep in a relatively stable level ; mortality rate takes on fallen trend . The factors of coming on nasopharynx cancer are less effected on the society and the environment in Zhongshan city. Nasopharynx cancer gradually reduces the threat of the crowds health.