2020年1月中国大陆需关注的突发公共卫生事件风险评估

目的评估2020年1月在我国大陆地区发生或者可能由境外输入的突发公共卫生事件风险。方法根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息，采用专家会商法，并通过视频会议形式邀请省（自治区、直辖市）疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。结果预计2020年1月突发公共卫生事件的报告数将较2019年12月下降，事件数可能低于前3年水平，报告事件以流行性感冒（流感）、水痘、诺如病毒病、非职业性一氧化碳中毒为主。 需要密切关注湖北省武汉市2019新型冠状病毒疫情的病因、临床和流行特征调查进展，动态评估其可能造成的公共卫生风险。 流感将于1月底达到流行高峰，诺如病毒引发的感染性腹泻病疫情将维持较高水平，非职业性一氧化碳中毒事件仍将保持较高水平。 春节期间我国公民在境内需重点预防季节性流感、人感染禽流感、诺如病毒感染性腹泻等传染病，以及食物中毒和非职业性一氧化碳中毒；出境旅游需预防埃博拉病毒病、霍乱、登革热、黄热病、寨卡病毒病、中东呼吸综合征等，同时注意饮食卫生。结论需要对武汉市2019新型冠状病毒疫情、季节性流感予以重点关注，对诺如病毒感染性腹泻、非职业性一氧化碳中毒和春节假期旅行卫生予以一般关注。

Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in the mainland of China,January 2020

ObjectiveTo assess the risks of public health emergencies, both the indigenous ones and the imported ones, which might occur in the mainland of China in January 2020.MethodsAn internet based expert counsel was conducted to analyze the surveillance data of public health emergencies and priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels, and the experts in all provincial centers for disease control and prevention attended this conference through video terminal.ResultsGenerally speaking, it is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies reported in January 2020 would be lower than that in December 2019 and those during the same periods of previous three years, which might mainly be predominated by the epidemics of seasonal influenza, varicella, infectious diarrhea caused by norovirus and non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning event. Dynamical risk assessment should be conducted according to the progress of investigations of etiology, clinical and epidemiological characteristics of the 2019 novel coronavirus infections occurred recently in Wuhan. The peak of seasonal influenza might occur at the end of January. The incidences of infectious diarrhea caused by norovirus and non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning would still remain at high levels in January. In domestic vacation trips during the Spring Festival, travelers should pay attention to seasonal influenza, human infection with avian influenza virus, infectious diarrhea caused by norovirus, food poisoning and non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning. While travelling abroad, Chinese travelers should pay attention to Ebola virus disease, cholera, dengue fever, yellow fever, Zika virus disease, Middle East respiratory syndrome, as well as food hygiene.ConclusionClose attention should be paid to the 2019 novel coronavirus infections occurred in Wuhan and seasonal influenza, general attention should be paid to infectious diarrhea caused by norovirus, non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning and the Spring Festival travelling related health problems.