Predictors of the development of hypertension: ten-year follow-up study in a community]

Predictors of the development of hypertension were examined in a 10-year follow-up study of normotensive Japanese adults. Subjects (n = 265), aged 30-69 years at entry, normotensive and with no past history of antihypertensive treatment at entry, were studied in terms of the relationship of various physical, biochemical, dietary, and lifestyle data to the subsequent development of hypertension (defined as systolic blood pressure (SBP) more than 140 mmHg and/or diastolic blood pressure (DBP) more than 90 mmHg and/or starting antihypertensive treatment) with analysis accomplished using univariate and multivariate life table methods. Univariate analyses by the generalized Wilcoxon test showed significantly higher incidence of hypertension in those subjects with SBP 120 mmHg or more (p < 0.001), DBP 75 mmHg or more (p < 0.001), serum glutamate oxaloacetate transaminase (GOT) 20 KU or more (p < 0.001), serum glutamate pyruvate transaminase (GPT) 15 KU or more (p < 0.001), serum gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase (gamma-GTP) 10 IU/l or more (p < 0.001), age 50 or older (p = 0.002), body mass index 22 kg/m2 or more (p = 0.012), and serum creatinine less than 1.2 mg/dl (p = 0.020) than in the other subjects. Multivariate analysis by the Cox proportional hazards model confirmed that relatively higher SBP (p < 0.001), lower serum creatinine (p < 0.001), higher gamma-GTP (p = 0.002), and higher age (p = 0.041) were independent and significant predictors of future hypertension.