宫颈癌同步放化疗后疗效的预测模型构建与效能检验

目的:建立关于宫颈癌同步放化疗有效率的预测模型,并对预测模型进行效能检验,以指导临床治疗.方法:回顾分析川北医学院附属医院肿瘤科2017年6月至2020年12月收治的122例宫颈癌同期放化疗患者的临床资料及相关影像学资料,根据近期疗效分为有效组和无效组.先对两组数据采取单因素分析,再将单因素分析有意义的指标纳入多因素l...

Prediction model construction and efficacy test of concurrent chemoradiotherapy for cervical cancer

Objective:To establish a prediction model for the effective rate of concurrent chemoradiotherapy for cervical cancer,to predict the effective rate of concurrent chemoradiotherapy for cervical cancer,and to guide clinical treatment.Methods:The clinical data and imaging data of 122 patients with cervical cancer treated with concurrent chemoradiotherapy from June 2017 to December 2020 in the Department of Oncology,Affiliated Hospital of North Sichuan Medical College were retrospectively analyzed.The datas of the two groups were analyzed by univariate analysis,and then the significant indicators of univariate analysis were included in multivariate logistic regression analysis.According to the weight of relevant factors,the prediction model was established and the effectiveness was tested.Results:Univariate analysis showed that tumor diameter(MRI),parametrial invasion(imaging),squamous cell carcinoma associated antigen(SCC)were significantly correlated with the effective rate(all P<0.05).The above three indexes were included in the multivariate logistic regression analysis,and the prediction model equation was obtained as follows:Y=-1.545-0.037 X1+2.144 X2+0.0325 X3[Y=effective rate;Y=effective rate;Y=negative rate;X1=tumor diameter;X2=parametrial infiltration(imaging);X3=SCC].The ROC curve was used to test the effectiveness of the model.The results showed that the area under the ROC curve was 0.727(P=0.0001),95%CI:0.6292~0.8239 when the cut-off was 0.5.The sensitivity and specificity were 90.9 and 48.4,respectively.The overall prediction accuracy was 74.58%,and Hosmer lemeshow goodness of fit test showed that,χ2=10.51,P=0.2309.The model had good fitting validity(P>0.05)and high predictive value.Conclusions:Through the establishment of the prediction model,it is found that the standard concurrent chemoradiotherapy mode may have limited therapeutic effect on patients with large tumor diameter,periuterine infiltration and high SCC value,and the possible further treatment mode can be explored to improve the curative effect.