Performance of statistical models to predict mental health and substance abuse cost |
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| Authors: | Maria Montez-Rath Cindy L Christiansen Susan L Ettner Susan Loveland Amy K Rosen |
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| Affiliation: | (1) Boston University School of Public Health, Department of Biostatistics, Boston, Massachusetts, USA;(2) Center for Health Quality, Outcomes and Economic Research, Bedford VAMC, Bedford, Massachusetts, USA;(3) Boston University School of Public Health, Department of Health Services, Boston, Massachusetts, USA;(4) Division of General Internal Medicine and Health Services Research, David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California, Los Angeles, California, USA |
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| Abstract: | Background Providers use risk-adjustment systems to help manage healthcare costs. Typically, ordinary least squares (OLS) models on either untransformed or log-transformed cost are used. We examine the predictive ability of several statistical models, demonstrate how model choice depends on the goal for the predictive model, and examine whether building models on samples of the data affects model choice. |
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