山东省莒南县肾综合征出血热时空分布概率模型分析

目的探讨莒南县肾综合征出血热（HFRS）病例时空分布特点。方法对莒南县HFRS时空分布进行概率模型分析。结果莒南县HFRS病例的时间分布和空间分布皆不符合泊松分布（χ^2=38.44,P〈0.05;χ^2=138.58,P〈0.05）,而服从于负二项分布（χ^2=2.81,P〉0.05;χ^2=2.96,P〉0.05）,说明二者存在聚集性。高峰时点在4月21日,发病高峰期在2月10日至6月25日;空间分布主要集中在该县西部平原地带。结论要做好重点区域和关键季节HFRS的防治。

A probabilistic model of temporal and spatial distributions of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Ju'nan county,Shandong province

Objective To investigate temporal and spatial distribution patterns of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in Ju'nan county.Methods A probabilistic model was used for temporal and spatial distribution analysis of HFRS in Ju'nan.Results Neither the temporal nor spatial djstribution of HFRS cases in Ju'nan was consistent with the Poisson distribution(χ~2=38.44,P＜0.05;χ~2=138.58,P＜0.05).Both of them were consistent with a negative binomial distribution(χ~2=2.81,P＞0.05;χ~2=2.96,P＞0.05),suggesting spatial and temporal aggegation of HFRS cases.The incidence was high from February 10 to June 25 with the peak on April 21.The cases of HFRS mainly clustered in the county's western plains.Conclusion Prevention and control of HFRS should be spatially and temporally targeted to crucial areas and seasons.