中国中药资源出口贸易潜力——基于扩展引力模型的实证分析

采用2002-2022年中国与40个中药资源进口国的贸易数据,分析了中国中药资源贸易现状与特征,运用扩展引力模型研究了中国中药资源出口流量的影响因素和潜力。中国经济规模、中医文化海外传播、固定贸易成本、文化距离和区域贸易协定均对中国中药资源出口贸易有显著正向影响,而中国人口规模和可变贸易成本则对中药资源出口贸易有显著负向影响。中国与大部分中药资源进口国贸易潜力属于潜力巨大型,合作空间大。基于实证结果,为发挥中国中药资源出口贸易潜力,从加强文化交流、提高贸易便利化水平、加快推进自由贸易协定战略、利用孔子学院扩大中医药文化宣传、因地制宜制定出口策略5个方面提出政策建议。

Export trade potential of traditional Chinese medicine resources: An empirical analysis based on extended gravity model

Based on the trade data between China and 40 importing countries of traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) resources from 2002 to 2022, this paper analyzed the current situation and characteristics of Chinese TCM resources trade, and the extended gravity model was used to study the influencing factors and potential of Chinese TCM resources export flow. The results showed that Chinese economic scale, overseas dissemination of TCM culture, fixed trade cost, cultural distance and regional trade agreements all had significant positive effects on the export trade of TCM resources, while Chinese population size and variable trade cost had significant negative effects on the export trade of TCM resources. The trade potential between China and most of the importing countries of TCM resources belongs to the type of huge potential, and the cooperation space is large. Finally, based on the empirical results, in order to exert the export potential of TCM resources, suggestions from five aspects were put forward, thus strengthening cultural exchanges, improving trade facilitation, accelerating the free trade agreement strategy, expanding the promotion of traditional Chinese medicine culture through Confucius Institutes, and formulating export strategies according to local conditions.