| GARCH模型在门诊量预测中的应用 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 郭毓鹏,关红军,荣胜忠,崔新宇,李淼晶,李晓霞. GARCH模型在门诊量预测中的应用[J]. 中国病案, 2013, 0(10): 42-45 |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 郭毓鹏 关红军 荣胜忠 崔新宇 李淼晶 李晓霞 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 牡丹江市,黑龙江省牡丹江医学院公共卫生学院流行病与卫生统计学教研室 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 牡丹江医学院科学技术研究项目资助编号：2011-22157011 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 应用GARCH模型理论分析某医院2003年至2012年月门诊量变化趋势,并建立AR（1）-IGARCH（2,1）模型,比较2003年至2012年月门诊实测值和模型预测值,其平均相对误差为0.057%,然后应用AR（1）-IGARCH（2,1）模型预测了2013年和2014年该院的月门诊量,比较2013年1月至6月月门诊量实测值和模型预测值,其平均相对误差为0.67%.分析结果表明GARCH模型能很好地追踪门诊量变化趋势.
|
| 关 键 词： | GARCH模型 门诊量 预测 |
Application of GARCH Model in The Forecasting of Hospital Outpatient Numbers |
| |
| Guo Yupeng,Guan Hongjun,Rong Shengzhong,Cui Xinyu,Li Miaojing,Li Xiaoxia. Application of GARCH Model in The Forecasting of Hospital Outpatient Numbers[J]. Chinese Medical Record, 2013, 0(10): 42-45 |
| |
| Authors: | Guo Yupeng Guan Hongjun Rong Shengzhong Cui Xinyu Li Miaojing Li Xiaoxia |
| |
| Affiliation: | Guo Yupeng,Guan Hongjun,Rong Shengzhong,Cui Xinyu,Li Miaojing,Li Xiaoxia |
| |
| Abstract: | To analyze the change trend of the monthly outpatient numbers from 2003 to 2012 of a hospital using the GARCH model theory, and build an AR （1） - IGARCH（2,1） model, then compared the actual numbers and the forecast numbers from 2003 to 2012, the average relative error is 0.057%. To forecast the monthly outpatient numbers of the following 2 years with the applica- tion of AR （1） - IGARCH （2, 1） model, and then compare the actual numbers and the forecast numbers date from January to June in 2013, the average relative error is 0.67%. The result indicated that the GARCH model was a good tool in closely tracing the change of monthly outpatient numbers. |
| |
| Keywords: | GARCH model Outpatient number Forecast |
| 本文献已被 维普 等数据库收录！ |
|
