天津市病床资源总量预测及分析

目的:分别从供给与需求角度研究到2015年我市床位发展水平,为确定我市2015年的床位资源配置目标提供参考。方法:应用常规GM(1,1)模型和新陈代谢模型预测2015年天津市医院床位供需水平。结果:新陈代谢模型预测精度更高,预计到2015年天津市供给床位数将达到54132张,需求床位数达到64096张,预测平均相对误差为0.37%和0.25%,供需比为0.84。结论:与《天津市"十二五"卫生资源调整规划意见》比较验证模型预测的合理性,提出"十二五"期间天津市病床资源总量建设的政策建议。

Prediction and Analysis of total hospital bed resources in Tianjin

Objective: Study the beds developing level in 2015 from the perspectives of supply and demand,to provide references for making the bed resources allocation target of Tianjin in 2015.Method: Use regular GM(1,1) model and metabolic model to predict the hospital bed supply and demand level of Tianjin in 2015.Results: The prediction accuracy of the metabolic model is better.In 2015 the supply in Tianjin will be 54123 beds,while demand will be 64096,average relative deviation is 0.37% and 0.25%,and the supply and demand ratio is 0.84.Conclusion: The rationality of the prediction result was validated by comparing with the twelfth five-year plan of health resources in Tianjin.Finally,the policy recommendations of the total bed resources construction during the twelfth five-year plan were proposed.