广东省某地女性性工作者的基数估计研究

目的采用枚举法对广东省某市市区的女性性工作者(FSW)的基数进行估计,为评估该地的艾滋病流行状况和预测流行趋势提供依据。方法绘制该地FSW的分布图,对集中存在FSW的场所和街道通过现场观察或业主报告的方法初步估算其FSW数量。按照分布的场所类型和街道进行分层随机抽样,对抽取场所和街道内的FSW数量进行清点,计算清点核查与初步估算FSW数量的差别,采用枚举法估算该地FSW的基数。结果该市市区集中存在FSW的服务场所和街道共有189个,现场观察或业主报告初步估算共有FSW 2 360人。分层随机抽取26个场所和街道清点FSW人数,清点核查与初步估算数平均差别在-20.00%~ 37.14%,采用枚举法估算该地共有FSW 2 055~2 747人。结论采用枚举法估计该地的FSW基数与现场观察或业主报告的FSW人数较为一致。

A study of population size estimation of female sex workers in a city in Guangdong province

Objectives To estimate the population size of female sex workers(FSWs) and provide scientific bases for evaluation and projection of HIV/AIDS epidemic.Methods The distribution of FSWs in the city was mapped and the number of FSWs was estimated by observation or self report by the owners.Stratified random sampling was used to get the samples of FSWs hovered sites and streets.The numbers of FSWs in the sampled sites and streets were counted and the difference between the primary estimation and the counted number was calculated.Numeration method was used to estimate the population size of FSWs.Results 189 sites and streets were crowded with FSWs.The estimated number of FSWs from observation and self report of owners of the sites was(2 360.26) sites and streets were sampled to count the number of FSWs.The differences between the estimation and counted number varied from-20.00% to ( 37.14%).The numeration methods showed the estimated population size of FSWs in the city was(2 055)-(2 747).Conclusions The estimated population size of FSWs from the numeration method was close to the estimated number from observation and self report of owners of the sites.