应用多元回归模型预测春季农田害鼠发生程度的研究

运用微机对与春季农田害鼠发生程度密切相关的前期因子和春季农田害鼠发生程度之间的关系进行多元回归分析,建立预测模型,并应用该模型进行预测,结果与实际情况完全吻合。

Studies on Forecasting Spring Vole Incidence With Multiple Regression Model

According to th relationship between spring vole incidence and three high related earlier stage factors of spring vole incidence,i, e,capture rate in March,capture rate of female voles in March and the largest rainfall from the first ten days of the December to the first ten days of the next February,the forecast model was made with the multiple regression analysis and the model was applied to forecast in practice too. It shows that the calculated results from the model tallied with the facts perfectly.