A decade of spontaneous long-term course of psychogenic impairment in a community population sample

Background: Our epidemiological study demonstrates the spontaneous long-term course of predominantly psychosocially influenced (“psychogenic”) disorders (neurotic spectrum disorders, personality disorders, stress reactions and somatoform disorders) in a representative community sample of the normal adult population of Mannheim, an industrial and university town in Germany. The natural spontaneous course of these disorders in a population sample over a long period remains largely unknown. Method: Beginning in 1979 (n _t1 = 600) a random population sample was investigated three times over a mean period of approximately 11 years. The last follow-up study ended in 1994 (n _t3 = 301). The follow-up sample was representative of the t1 sample. Psychodynamically trained and clinically experienced interviewers used a semi-structured interview and standardized clinical and psychometric instruments. Psychogenic impairment was assessed using a standardized expert rating (Impairment Score, IS). Results: The mean sum-score of psychogenic impairment after 11 years exceeded the value at t1. The case rate (point prevalence, ICD diagnosis + clinical cut-off/IS) increased from 21.6% at t1 to 26.2% at t3 in the investigated follow-up sample. Intra-individual correlation of psychogenic impairment between t1 and t3 was high (r = 0.55). We found strong evidence for an unfavorable long-term course of psychogenic impairment and only a weak tendency (23.1%) for spontaneous remission of clinically relevant psychogenic impairment. Within a regression model clinical variables, childhood development conditions and personality traits at t1 predicted psychogenic impairment at t3. Conclusion: All clinical variables conclusively indicate an unfavorable spontaneous long-term course of psychogenic impairment. Together with the well-known high prevalence of psychogenic disorders in the normal population, this underlines the need for early therapeutic and preventive intervention. Accepted: 20 August 1999