云南省德宏州静脉注射吸毒人群艾滋病毒感染自然史研究

目的 了解静脉注射吸毒人群艾滋病毒(HIV)感染的生存与死亡规律及其影响因素.方法 收集并分析云南省德宏州1989年8-12月发现的196例静脉注射吸毒HIV感染者20年跟踪随访资料.结果 截止观察终点2009年12月31日,196例HIV感染者中177例(90.3%)死亡,10例(5.1%)存活,9例(4.6%)失访.总死亡密度为98.1/1000人年,艾滋病死亡密度为54.9/1000人年.因艾滋病死亡者占所有死亡者的55.9%,其他疾病死亡原因中以疟疾(2.8%)、败血症(2.3%)为主,非病死亡原因中以吸毒过量(13.0%)、意外伤亡(6.8%)为主.以死亡为结局,静脉注射吸毒人群HIV感染者中位生存时间为8.6年(95%CI:7.6～9.7).以艾滋病死亡为结局,则中位生存时间为11.3年(95%CI:10.3～12.8),估计的潜伏期约为10.3年.30岁及以上HIV感染者死亡的危险性是30岁以下者的1.9倍(95%CI:1.2～2.7).吸毒时间越长,生存时间越短(HR=0.7,95%CI:0.6～0.7).结论 静脉注射吸毒人群非艾滋病死亡人数较多.注射吸毒人群中位生存时间和潜伏期低于发达国家同类人群.年龄是影响HIV感染生存时间的重要因素.

Natural history of HIV infections among injecting drug users in Dehong prefecture, Yunnan province

Objective To study the natural history of HIV-1 infection among intravenous drug users (IDUs) detected in late 1989 in the study area and the factors related to survival of these IDUs infected with HIV. Methods 196 injecting drug users first detected during August and December, 1989 were observed in Ruili county, Yunnan province. Data gathered from the 20-year follow-up program was collected and analyzed retrospectively. Results After 20 years' follow-up period, 90.3% of the 196 IDUs with HIV infection died, 5.1% of them were still alive, and 4.6% were lost. The crude pre-AIDS mortality rate was 98.1/1000 person-years, and the AIDS mortality rate was 54.9/1000 person-years. Malaria, septicemia were the main causes of death among the natural diseases whereas overdose and accidental causes were the principal causes related to those non-disease deaths.The median survival time from sero-conversion to death was 8.6 years (95%CI: 7.6-9.7). The median survival time from sero-conversion to death due to AIDS was 11.3 years (95%CI: 10.3-12.8) with the incubation time as around 10.3 years. People older than 30 years at seroconversion and length of drug usage were associated with shorter survival time, with hazards ratios as 1.9 and 0.7, respectively.Conclusion A high pre-AIDS mortality was observed among IDUs. Both the median survival time from sero-conversion to death and the HIV incubation period were shorter than that observed in the developed countries. Age of HIV infection seemed to have a strong effect on survival.