天津市可吸人颗粒物与城区居民每日死亡关系的时间序列分析

目的 研究天津市大气可吸入颗粒物(PM10)与城区居民每日死亡间的相关性.方法 通过收集天津市城区2005-2007年空气污染数据、日平均气温和相对湿度及每日死亡人数,采用广义相加模型,控制长期和季节趋势、气温和相对湿度等气象因素及二氧化硫(SO2)和二氧化氮(NO2)等气态污染物的影响,分析天津市PM10与居民每日死亡之间的关系.结果 大气PM10与人群每日非意外死亡、循环系统疾病死亡和呼吸系统疾病死亡间显著相关.PM10浓度每升高10 μg/m3,人群每日非意外死亡、循环系统疾病死亡和呼吸系统疾病死亡分别增加0.45%(0.21～0.69)、0.60%(0.29～0.91)和0.82%(0.04～1.61).结论 天津市大气PM10污染与城区居民每日死亡显著相关,尤其是循环系统疾病和呼吸系统疾病死亡.

Time-series analysis of association between inhalable particulate matter and daily mortality among urban residents in Tianjin

Objective To study the association between particulate matter less than 10 micron in aerodynamic diameter (PM10) and daily mortality among urban population in Tianjin.Methods We collected data of air quality, daily mean temperature and relative humidity, and daily cause-specific death counts, and used generalized additive models to explore the relationship between ambient particulate matter and daily mortality, after adjusting the effects of long-term and seasonal trend, weather conditions and other gaseous pollutants, such as sulfur dioxide and nitrogen dioxide.Results An increase of 10 μg/m3 in PM10 was associated with 0.45% (95%CI: 0.21-0.69) non-accidental morality, 0.60% (0.29-0.91) circulatory morality and 0.82% (0.04-1.61) respiratory morality, respectively. Conclusion Our findings indicated that the extent of exposure to PM10 was significantly associated with daily mortality in urban population in Tianjin, especially with the mortality rates on circulatory and respiratory diseases.