| Abstract: | The short-term prognosis of lupus nephritis was evaluated byassessing serum creatinine 12 months after renal biopsy in 87patients with lupus nephritis. On univariate analysis, significantclinical and laboratory predictors of this outcome includedclinical signs of renal injury (serum creatinine, 24-hour urinaryprotein, prolonged renal disease, nephrotic syndrome, serumalbumin), as well as thrombocytopenia, older age, and coexistingillness or hypertension at the time of biopsy. On renal biopsy,diffuse proliferative nephritis, higher activity, chronicity,or tubulointerstitial scores, or subendothelial or subepithelialelectron dense deposits predicted a higher serum creatinine12 months after biopsy. A clinical predictive model was developed which included asindependent predictors serum creatinine, age, platelet countand 24-hour urinary protein. Any one of three biopsy variablesadded information to the clinical prediction model: a markedquantity of subendothelial deposits (p=0.02), a higher activityindex score (p=0.02), or the presence of diffuse proliferativelupus nephritis (p=0.05). However, the relative predictive accuracyof the clinical model did not improve with the addition of anyof the biopsy variables. The value of renal biopsy in lupus nephritis is discussed basedon the ability of biopsy information to confirm the prognosis,to add new predictive information for a group of subjects, andto improve predictive accuracy for individual patients. |
