产后早期盆腔器官脱垂发生的预测模型构建及验证

目的:分析产后早期发生盆腔器官脱垂（POP）的高危因素并构建预测模型。方法:横断面调查北京大学人民医院2018年12月至2019年10月期间产后6周妇女（2 247例）的临床资料和POP现状并采用logistic回归分析产后POP发生的相关影响因素，构建产后早期POP发生的预测模型并进行内部验证；另采集2019年11—...

Establishment and validation of prediction model of new-onset pelvic organ prolapse in early postpartum period

Objective To analyze the risk factors of pelvic organ prolapse(POP)and to establish the prediction model.Methods A study was conducted on the prevalence of POP among 2247 parturient women at 6 weeks postpartum in Peking University People′s Hospital from December 2018 to October 2019,and relevant influencing factors were analyzed to construct a prediction model of early postpartum POP using logsitic regression,which was validated internally.Data from November 2019 to December 2019(403 parturient women)were collected for external validation of the prediction model.In addition,the obstetrical factors affecting the occurrence of early postpartum POP in 885 primiparas with vaginal delivery(from January 2019 to November 2019)were further discussed.Results A total of 2247 cases were included in the modeling group,and 403 cases were included in the external validation data set.POP accounted for 24.3%(545/2247).Age,parity,body mass index before pregnancy,vaginal delivery and newborn birth weight were negative factors for early postpartum POP(all P<0.05).The nomogram was established based on the above factors,and internal and external verification indicated that the model had a good discrimination(C-index were 0.759 and 0.760,respectively).In addition,this study found that age and newborn birth weight were the main causes of early postpartum POP in primiparas with vaginal delivery(P=0.044,P=0.004).Conclusions The incidence of early postpartum POP is high.The prediction model of POP constructed in this study could be used to guide clinical practice to a certain extent and give corresponding treatment suggestions to pregnant women scientifically,so as to provide theoretical support for primary prevention.