Therapeutic implications and sites of relapse predicted by elevated posttherapy erythrocyte sedimentation rate in early stage Hodgkin disease

An analysis was performed of all 57 early relapses (ER) (within 18 months of therapy initiation) seen in a group of 301 patients treated on three successive European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) protocols from 1964 to 1981; to determine whether a posttherapy elevated erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR) (greater than or equal to 30 mm) could predict the type of relapse and the effect upon the relapse of different therapies received. Overall most ER occurred in extranodal (EN) (42%) or irradiated transdiaphragmatic nodal (TDN) (40%) sites. Compared to patients with normal posttherapy ESR (n = 12), patients with elevated posttherapy ESR (n = 45) had the same proportions of outfield and late relapses; more frequent multiple sites of ER (38% vs. 25%), increased proportions of early EN relapses (16% vs. 3%), TDN relapses (17% vs. 2%), and other ER (6% vs. 1%). ER were most frequently observed between 1964 and 1971, and "modern" radiotherapy (Rt) decreased ER overall from 27% to 13% and for elevated posttherapy ESR patients from 54% to 25%. When chemotherapy (Ct) was used as either adjuvant or initial therapy, ER were greatly reduced vs. Rt alone [overall (6% vs. 28%) and for patients with elevated posttherapy ESR (10% vs. 39%)]. Stepwise logistic regression showed Ct to be the most important factor "protecting" from EN relapse, but elevated posttherapy ESR was still significant. For early TDN relapse, elevated posttherapy ESR had the highest predictive value for relapse, greater than the types of radiation fields used and chemotherapy. An unexplained elevated posttherapy ESR, regardless of previous therapy, predicts for ER from aggressive HD, frequently in EN and irradiated areas, and warrants further early therapy.