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Impacts of intercontinental transport of anthropogenic fine particulate matter on human mortality |
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| Authors: | Susan C. Anenberg J. Jason West Hongbin Yu Mian Chin Michael Schulz Dan Bergmann Isabelle Bey Huisheng Bian Thomas Diehl Arlene Fiore Peter Hess Elina Marmer Veronica Montanaro Rokjin Park Drew Shindell Toshihiko Takemura Frank Dentener |
| Affiliation: | 1. US Environmental Protection Agency, 1200 Pennsylvania Ave NW MC6301A, Washington, DC, 20460, USA 2. University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC, USA 3. University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA 4. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA 5. Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway 6. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, USA 7. Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Zurich, Switzerland 8. Universities Space Research Association, Columbia, MD, USA 9. Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, USA 10. Department of Biological and Environmental Engineering, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA 11. Department of Education, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany 12. University of L’Aquila, L’Aquila, Italy 13. Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea 14. NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, USA 15. Columbia Earth Institute, New York, NY, USA 16. Research Institute for Applied Mechanics, Kyushu University, Fukuoka, Japan 17. European Commission, Joint Research Center, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Ispra, Italy |
| Abstract: | Fine particulate matter with diameter of 2.5 μm or less (PM2.5) is associated with premature mortality and can travel long distances, impacting air quality and health on intercontinental scales. We estimate the mortality impacts of 20 % anthropogenic primary PM2.5 and PM2.5 precursor emission reductions in each of four major industrial regions (North America, Europe, East Asia, and South Asia) using an ensemble of global chemical transport model simulations coordinated by the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution and epidemiologically-derived concentration-response functions. We estimate that while 93–97 % of avoided deaths from reducing emissions in all four regions occur within the source region, 3–7 % (11,500; 95 % confidence interval, 8,800–14,200) occur outside the source region from concentrations transported between continents. Approximately 17 and 13 % of global deaths avoided by reducing North America and Europe emissions occur extraregionally, owing to large downwind populations, compared with 4 and 2 % for South and East Asia. The coarse resolution global models used here may underestimate intraregional health benefits occurring on local scales, affecting these relative contributions of extraregional versus intraregional health benefits. Compared with a previous study of 20 % ozone precursor emission reductions, we find that despite greater transport efficiency for ozone, absolute mortality impacts of intercontinental PM2.5 transport are comparable or greater for neighboring source-receptor pairs, due to the stronger effect of PM2.5 on mortality. However, uncertainties in modeling and concentration-response relationships are large for both estimates. |
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