相关医学和药学类高等教育规模和层次预测研究

采用动态数列、趋势外推、灰色预测和专家预测等方法,对卫生人力发展、相关医学和药学类高等教育招生规模 和层次结构进行了预测。结果显示:相关医学和药学类高等教育在今后5～10年中,以每年招收5～7万人,占高等医学教育 招生总数的35％为宜。其层次结构中本科逐步达到30％,专科为70％。在预测基础上,提出了相关的政策建议。

A Study of Prediction as to Scale and Levels of Paramedical and Pharmacy Higher Education

The present study predicts the development of health manpower and level structure of paramedical and pharmacy higher education by methods of dynamic series, tendency extrapolation, grey forecasting and special istic prediction. The results show that in the future 5-10 years, it is suitable for the paramedical and pharmacy higher education lo enroll 50 000-70 000 new students every year, which will account for 35 percent of total medical students of higher medical education. In their level structure undergraduates will gradually reach 30 percent and students receiving 3-year special-i/ed training 70 percent. Some policy suggestions are put forward on the basis of prediction.