空间面板数据模型在传染病监测数据分析中的应用

目的探讨空间面板数据模型在传染病监测数据分析中的的适用性和应用价值。方法以2009—2011年广东省手足口病发病与气象因素的关系问题为例，建立空间面板数据模型。结果在校正了空间个体效应和空间相关效应后，平均温度、平均降水量和平均温差均具有统计学意义（均有P〈0．05），变量回归系数分别为0．0288、0．0003和-0．0357。与传统的时间序列分析和横断面分析相比，空间面板数据模型更充分利用监测数据的时空信息，可以分析数据中的空间差异性和空间相关性。结论空间面板数据模型在传染病监测数据分析中具有独特优势和较好的应用价值。

Application of Spatial panel data model in data analysis for infectious disease surveillance

Objective To investigate the application of spatial panel data model in data analysis for infectious dis- ease surveillance. Methods Hand-foot-mouth disease surveillance data and meteorological data in Guangdong Province were collected, and then Spatial panel data model was used to analyze the relationship between hand, foot and mouth dis- ease and meteorological variables. Results After controlling spatial individual effect and spatial dependence, the coeffi- cients of temperature, rainfall and temperature difference to incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease were 0. 028 8, 0. 000 3 and -0. 035 7 （ all P 〈 0. 05 ）. Comparing with the time series analysis and cross-sectional analysis, Spatial panel data mod- el had more advantages in making full use of the monitoring information and analyzing the spatial heterogeneity and spatial dependence of the data. Conclusions Spatial panel data model have advantages and important value in data analysis for infectious disease surveillance.