Modelling the spread of penicillin-resistant Streptococcus pneumoniae in day-care and evaluation of intervention |
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Authors: | Andersson Mikael Ekdahl Karl Mölstad Sigvard Persson Kristina Hansson Hans Bertil Giesecke Johan |
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Affiliation: | Swedish Institute for Infectious Disease Control, Karolinska Institute, Sweden. mikaela@math.su.se |
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Abstract: | In 1995, a disease control and intervention project was initiated in Malm?hus county in southern Sweden to limit the spread of penicillin-resistant pneumococci. Since most of the carriers of pneumococci are preschool children, and since most of the spread is believed to take place in day-care, a mathematical model, in the form of a stochastic process, for the spread in a day-care group was constructed. Effects of seasonal variation and size of the day-care group were particularly considered. The model was then used for comparing results from computer simulations without and with intervention. Results indicate that intervention is highly effective in day-care groups with more than ten children during the second half of the year. |
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Keywords: | epidemic model stochastic process infectious disease pneumococci disease intervention |
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