天津市1999-2021年0~14岁儿童伤害死亡谱及城乡差异分析

目的 分析天津市0~14岁儿童伤害死亡谱的特征、变化情况及城乡差异。方法 1999-2021年天津市儿童伤害死亡数据来源于天津市全人口全死因监测数据库,计算不同亚组人群和主要伤害原因的构成比、粗死亡率和标化死亡率并比较城乡差异。采用Cochran-Armitage趋势检验分析死亡原因构成比的时间变化趋势。采用Joinpoint回归分析变化趋势,计算平均年变化百分比（AAPC）。伤害死亡风险的季节差异用死亡率比值及其95%CI表示。结果 1999-2021年,伤害是天津市0~14岁儿童的第3位死因。农村儿童死于医疗卫生机构的比例为31.08%,低于城市的37.82%。儿童伤害的总体标化死亡率呈下降趋势（AAPC=-5.54%,P<0.001）。溺水和道路交通伤害的标化死亡率在城市和农村地区呈下降趋势（P<0.001）。意外中毒的标化死亡率仅在农村地区呈下降趋势（AAPC=-8.09%,P<0.001）,在城市地区无明显变化趋势（P>0.05）。自杀标化死亡率在城市地区无明显变化趋势（P>0.05）,在10~14岁农村儿童中呈上升趋势（AAPC=4.58%）。跌倒/坠落标化死亡率在城市和农村地区均无明显变化趋势（P>0.05）。伤害死亡的总体风险和溺水死亡风险在城乡均为夏季最高;道路交通伤害在城市为秋季最高,在农村为夏季最高;意外中毒死亡风险在城乡均为冬季最高。结论 近年来天津市儿童伤害死亡情况得到明显改善。城市和农村地区的儿童伤害死亡水平仍存在较大差异,在未来政策制定中,应充分考虑缩小城乡差距。

Injury death spectrum in children aged 0-14 years and its urban-rural difference in Tianjin, 1999-2021

Objective To analyze the characteristics, change of injury death spectrum in children aged 0-14 years and its urban-rural difference in Tianjin. Methods The incidence data of injury death in children aged 0-14 years in Tianjin from 1999 to 2021 were collected from the "Population Based Mortality Surveillance System in Tianjin". We calculated constituent ratio, crude and standardized mortality rates in different subgroups of the population and major injury subtypes, and compared the rural-urban differences. The Cochran-Armitage trend test was used to analyze temporal trends in cause-of-death component ratios. Joinpoint regression model was used to calculate average annual percent change (AAPC). Seasonal difference in injury mortality risk were expressed as mortality ratio and 95% confidence interval. Results From 1999 to 2021, injury was the third cause of death in children aged 0-14 years in Tianjin. The percentage of children who died in health-care facilities in rural area was 31.08%, which was lower than 37.82% in urban area. There was a downward trend in the standardized mortality rate of injury in children (AAPC=-5.54%, P<0.001). The standardized mortality rates of drowning and road traffic injury declined in both urban area and rural area (P<0.001). The mortality rate of accidental poisoning decreased in rural area (AAPC=-8.09%, P<0.001), but showed no significant change trend in urban area (P>0.05). The standardized mortality rate of suicide showed no significant change trend in urban area, but there was an increasing trend in the standardized mortality rate of suicide in rural children aged 10-14 years (AAPC=4.58%). No significant change trend was observed in mortality rate of falls in urban and rural children (P>0.05). The injury mortality rate showed obvious seasonality in children in Tianjin. Overall injury death risk and risk for drowning-caused death were highest in summer in both urban area and rural area. The risk for road traffic injury-related death was highest in autumn in urban area and in summer in rural area. The risk for death caused by accidental poisoning was highest in winter in both urban area and rural area. Conclusions In recent decades, the injury mortality rate in children aged 0-14 years in Tianjin showed a decreasing trend. There is still a significant difference in the injury mortality level between urban area and rural area, to which close attention needs to be paid in the future policy development.