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Testing Mayo Clinic’s New 20/20/20 Risk Model in Another Cohort of Smoldering Myeloma Patients: A Retrospective Study
Authors:Camille Tessier,Thomas Allard,Jean-Samuel Boudreault,Rayan Kaedbey,Vincent   thier,Fl  ch  re Fortin,Michel Pavic
Affiliation:1.Centre Hospitalier Universitaire de Sherbrooke (CHUS), Sherbrooke, QC J1H 5H3, Canada; (C.T.); (T.A.); (V.É.); (F.F.);2.Hôpital Universitaire du Sacré-Cœur de Montréal, Montreal, QC H4J 1C5, Canada;3.Jewish General Hospital, McGill University, Montreal, QC H3T 1E2, Canada;4.Centre de Recherche du CHUS (CRCHUS), Sherbrooke, QC J1H 5N4, Canada
Abstract:Background—smoldering multiple myeloma (SMM) risk of progression to multiple myeloma (MM) is highly heterogeneous and several models have been suggested to predict this risk. Lakshman et al. recently proposed a model based on three biomarkers: bone marrow plasma cell (BMPC) percentage > 20%, free light chain ratio (FLCr) > 20 and serum M protein > 20 g/L. The goal of our study was to test this “20/20/20” model in our population and to determine if similar results could be obtained in another cohort of SMM patients. Method—we conducted a retrospective, single center study with 89 patients diagnosed with SMM between January 2008 and December 2019. Results—all three tested biomarkers were associated with an increased risk of progression: BMPC percentage ≥ 20% (hazard ratio [HR]: 4.28 [95%C.I., 1.90–9.61]; p < 0.001), serum M protein ≥ 20 g/L (HR: 4.20 [95%C.I., 1.90–15.53]; p = 0.032) and FLCr ≥ 20 (HR: 3.25 [95%C.I., 1.09–9.71]; p = 0.035). The estimated median time to progression (TTP) was not reached for the low and intermediate risk groups and was 29.1 months (95%C.I., 3.9–54.4) in the high-risk group (p = 0.006). Conclusions—the 20/20/20 risk stratification model adequately predicted progression in our population and is easy to use in various clinical settings.
Keywords:smoldering multiple myeloma   multiple myeloma   risk stratification model
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