主要气候因素变化影响2017-2018年广州蚊密度与登革流行趋势分析

目的 了解年度气候变化对广州蚊密度与登革流行趋势的影响。方法 2017年5月至2018年5月采用BG-Sentinel trap（BG-trap）在广州市校园、公园、小区三种不同生境开展蚊虫种群密度调查。采用广义估计方程(GEE)分析每月登革发病人数与温度、降雨量和白纹伊蚊密度的关系。结果 三种生境共捕获成蚊6853只，其中白纹伊蚊1028只，雌蚊534只。模型分析结果显示:月最高温度升高1℃，1个月后的登革发病数增加1.806倍；月降雨量每增加1mm，当月登革发病数减少0.012倍；每个BG-trap诱捕的白纹伊蚊雌蚊密度增加1只/天，当月登革发病数增加0.779倍。结论 广州市学校、公园、小区三种生境的蚊种种群构成有统计学差异，三种生境的白纹伊蚊每月密度变化和雌雄构成比均无统计学差异，但登革发病人数与前推一个月的最高温度和当月的白纹伊蚊雌蚊密度有正相关关系。

Mosquito density and dengue epidemic trend affected by the change of main climate factors,Guangzhou, 2017-2018

Objective To understand the influence of annual climate change on mosquito density and dengue epidemic trend in Guangzhou. Methods From May 2017 to May 2018, BG sentinel trap (BG trap) was used to investigate the population density of mosquitoes in three different habitats of campus, park and community in Guangzhou. The generalized estimating equation (GEE) was used to analyze the relationship between monthly reported dengue cases with temperature, precipitation, and Ae. albopictus density. Results A total of 6853 adult mosquitoes in the three habitats were collected, including 1028 Ae. albopictus and 534 female Ae. albopictus. It was found that, for 1 °C increase in the monthly maximum temperature at 1-month lag, the number of dengue cases increased by 1.806 times. For 1 mm increase in monthly rainfall, the number of current month’s dengue cases reduced by 0.012 times. A 1/(trap·day) increase in the density of female Ae. albopictus resulted in 0.779-fold increased number of dengue cases. Conclusion There are differences in the composition of mosquito species in the three habitats, with no significant differences in the monthly average density of Ae. albopictus and its sex ratio, while maximum temperature at 1-month lag and current month’s female density are positively associated with monthly reported dengue cases.