我国2015年卷烟消费税上调对卷烟零售价格的影响

目的 评估2015年卷烟消费税上调对卷烟零售价的影响。方法 利用2013-2015年10城市开展的烟草价格监测数据，计算卷烟的名义价格和实际价格，描述价格变化趋势。结果 2013-2015年3次均监测到352种卷烟，其中2013、2014年卷烟名义价格未发生显著变化，2015年卷烟消费税上调后，较2014年有286种卷烟价格上涨，10种常见卷烟名义价格相对于2013年涨幅为0.6%～7.4%，但实际价格与2013年相比涨跌不一。结论 2015年卷烟消费税上调可传导至卷烟零售价，但考虑到通货膨胀和购买力等因素，实际价格上涨有限，其对控烟的意义还需进一步评估。

Preliminary influence of 2015 cigarette excise tax up-regulation on cigarette retail price

Objective To evaluate the impact of cigarette excise tax up-regulation on the retail price of cigarettes in 2015. Methods Nominal and real price of selected cigarette varieties were calculated with data from Tobacco Retail Price Monitoring Project, which was conducted in 10 cities of China from 2013 to 2015. The trend of the cigarette prices changing was analyzed with annual data. Results A total of 352 varieties of cigarettes were surveyed during the three years. The nominal price of these cigarettes did not change significantly from 2013 to 2014. Compared with nominal price of 2014, the price of 286 varieties increased and the price of 10 most popular varieties increased from 0.6% to 7.4% after cigarette excise tax increased, but the actual prices had both rise and fall compared with 2013. Conclusions Cigarette excise tax raise in 2015 had influence on the retail price of cigarettes. But the increase in retail price was very limited, if factors including inflation and purchasing power are taken into consideration. Therefore, the influence of 2015 cigarette excise tax raise on tobacco control needs further evaluation.