山东省2010-2016年肾综合征出血热流行与时空分布特征分析

目的 了解2010－2016年山东省肾综合征出血热（HFRS）的流行特征及其时空分布特征，为制定今后的防控措施提供参考。方法 以中国疾病预防信息系统的数据为基础，利用空间自相关和时空扫描的方法对2010－2016年山东省HFRS的发病情况进行分析，描述其流行特征和时空聚集情况。结果 2010－2016年山东省HFRS共发病9 114例，年龄分布以30～70岁组为主，男女性别比为2.63∶1，职业分布以农民为主。发病总体呈现东南高、西北低的趋势。发病率先增后减，形成了一次流行周期，发病高峰在2013年（1.87/10万）。空间自相关和时空扫描结果显示山东省HFRS的高发聚集区由鲁东南地区集中后向鲁中地区扩散，聚集时间主要集中在2011年末至2015年上半年，2016年发病和高发聚集情况均有所下降。结论 2010－2016年山东省HFRS存在流行和聚集情况，重点防控地区在鲁中和鲁东南地区。

Analysis on epidemiological and temporal-spatial distribution characteristics of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Shandong province, 2010-2016

Objective To analyze the epidemiological and temporal-spatial distribution characteristics of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in Shandong province during 2010-2016 and provide references for developing prevention and control measures. Methods Based on the data of Infectious Disease Reporting Information System in China, the incidence and temporal-spatial distribution of HFRS in Shandong from 2010 to 2016 were analyzed by spatial autocorrelation and space-time scan statistics. Results A total of 9 114 HFRS cases were reported in Shandong during this period. The cases were mainly distributed in age group 30-70 years, and the male to female ratio of the cases was 2.63:1. Most cases were farmers. The higher incidence rate was reported in southeastern Shandong, while the lower incidence rate was reported in northwestern Shandong. Among the epidemic periods, the highest incidence rate was 1.87/100 000 in 2013. The results of spatial autocorrelation and space-time scanning indicated that the high-high clusters of HFRS were concentrated in southeastern Shandong and then spread to central Shandong. The cluster mainly occurred from the end of 2011 to the first half of 2015. Both the incidence rate and the cluster decreased in 2016. Conclusions The epidemic and cluster of HFRS still existed in Shandong from 2010 to 2016. The key areas for the prevention and control of HFRS were in southeastern and central Shandong.