中国多个城市居民死亡与夏季高温的相关性研究

目的 探讨中国31个城市夏季高温变化与人群死亡之间的关联性。方法 收集中国31个城市2008年1月1日至2013年12月31日的每日死亡数据和气象数据。运用分布滞后非线性模型,控制长期趋势、"星期几效应"等的影响,分析夏季前期和后期高温变化与死亡的相关性。结果 夏季前期高温对死亡影响的RR值高于后期,夏季前期高温对死亡影响的RR值集中于1.08~2.14,夏季后期高温对死亡影响的RR值集中于1.03~1.67。夏季前期时,高温对死亡的影响主要集中在P₅以下和P₅₀以上,而夏季后期高温对死亡影响主要集中于P₉₅以上。夏季前期高温对死亡的影响可以滞后6 d左右,而夏季后期高温对死亡的影响只滞后2 d左右。结论 夏季高温与居民死亡之间存在关联性,夏季前期高温对死亡的影响高于夏季后期,应采取有针对性的防护措施。

Association between high air temperature and mortality in summer: A multi-city analysis in China

Objective To understand the associations between changes of high air temperature and mortality in summer in 31 cities in China. Methods Daily mortality and meteorological data in 31 cities in China from January 1, 2008 to December 31, 2013 were collected. Distributed lag nonlinear model was used to evaluate the association between high air temperature change and mortality in early summer and late summer after controlling for the long-term trend and the effect of "day of week". Results The relative risk of high air temperature on mortality was higher in early summer, with relative risk in the range of 1.08-2.14 in early summer and 1.03-1.67 in late summer. In early summer, the influence of high temperature on mortality was mainly below 5^th of percentile and above 50^th of percentile, while in late summer it was mainly above 95^th of percentile. The lag effect of high air temperature on mortality in early summer was 6 days, while the lag effect in late summer was only about 2 days. Conclusions Association existed between high air temperature and mortality. The influence of high air temperature on mortality in early summer was stronger than that in late summer. It is necessary to take targeted protection measures.