湖南省2006-2014年戊型肝炎时空分布特征

目的 探讨2006-2014年湖南省戊型肝炎(戊肝)的时空分布特征。方法 收集2006-2014年中国疾病预防控制信息系统中传染病报告信息系统报告的戊肝病例数据。应用ArcGIS 10.2及SaTScan 9.1软件进行空间自相关分析及时间-空间聚集性分析。结果 2006-2014年湖南省累计报告戊肝病例7124例,死亡病例3例,年均发病率为1.22/10万,以55岁以上发病为主(22.42/10万),绝大多数病例是农民(54.15%)。戊肝在湖南省各县(市、区)的发病情况不一,高发地区主要为湘北、湘西部地区,发病较低的地区则为湘中、南部等地区。全局自相关分析显示,各县(市、区)戊肝的发病率存在空间正自相关(Moran''s I均为正值,P<0.05)。局部自相关分析显示,31个县(市、区)戊肝发病率高值聚集且具有统计学意义(P<0.05)。时空聚集性分析共扫描出7个聚集区域,一级聚集区域位于2012-2014年的湘西地区;二级聚集区域位于2011-2014年的湘北地区。结论 2006-2014年湖南省戊肝发病有明显的地域分布规律。湘北和湘西部地区较其他地区聚集性高。

Characteristic of spatial-temporal distribution of hepatitis E in Hunan province, 2006-2014

Objective To analyze the spatial-temporal distribution of Hepatitis E(HEV) in Hunan province from 2006 to 2014. Methods Data related to HEV cases in Hunan province from 2006 to 2014 were collected from the Infectious Diseases Reporting Information System in the formation System of Disease Prevention and Control of China. Based on ArcGIS(10.2) and SaTScan(version 9.1), spatial autocorrelation analysis and space-time clustering analysis were used to study the prevalence on HEV. Results A total of 7124 HEV cases were reported with 3 deaths during this period. The average annual incidence rate was 1.22/10⁵. Most of the cases were over 55 years old and the majority of them(54.15%) were farmers. The distribution of HEV showed differences on locations and the regions with high incidence seen in northern and western areas of Hunan. However the regions with low incidence appeared in central or southern parts of Hunan. Data from the global spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that there was space autocorrelation on the HEV incidence rates in counties(cities, districts)(Moran''I was positive, P<0.05). A total of 31 countries were found in the high-high region with most of the clusters located in northern and western Hunan. According to local indication of spatial autocorrelation analysis, 31 countries in high-high region all showed statistically significant differences(P<0.05). Results from the space-time scan showed 7 space-time clustering areas, including those most likely in the western Hunan area(2012-2014); the secondary clusters in northern Hunan areas(2011-2014). Conclusions Significant cluster pattern was found in the distribution of HEV in Hunan province. Clusters found in northern and western of Hunan province were seen more than in other regions.