恶性肿瘤对平均预期寿命影响的生命表分析

摘要:本文基于2012年山东省恶性肿瘤死亡监测数据，应用单递减和逐步多递减原因生命表，探讨恶性肿瘤及其主要类型对预期寿命的影响。结果显示，2012年山东省恶性肿瘤死亡率为174.35/10万，城乡（U＝173.00，P＞0.05）及性别（U＝165.00，P＞0.05）差异均无统计学意义；肺癌、肝癌与胃癌居于死因顺位的前3位，但顺位存在性别差异；恶性肿瘤对预期寿命的损失随年龄增长而逐步降低，男性高于女性，性别差异大于城乡差异；肺癌对平均预期寿命损失最高，中老年人口是肺癌死亡的高风险人群；0岁人口恶性肿瘤死亡风险较高，是妇幼保健与预防工作的严峻挑战。以上结果为恶性肿瘤防控、医疗保险的制度设计及社会经济负担预测提供参考。

Effect of life table on of the average life expectancy from malignant tumors

Abstract: Based on the data of the death surveillance of malignant tumors in Shandong Province during 2012, by the tools of single and stepwise multiple causes of life table, to explore the influence of malignant tumors and the main types on life expectancy. The results showed that the mortality of malignant tumors was 174.35/100,000 in Shandong Province during 2012, and there was no statistical significance in town and country (U=173.00, P>0.05) and gender (U=165.00, P>0.05). There was a gender difference in the death of lung cancer, liver cancer and gastric cancer in the top 3. The loss of life expectancy of malignant tumors was down as the age increasing, and the difference in male was higher than that of female. Meanwhile, gender difference was greater than the difference between urban and rural areas. Lung cancer was the highest one attributed to the average loss of life expectancy, and middle aged population was the high risk population of lung cancer. Population aged 0 had higher risk of malignant tumor death, which brought the severe challenges to maternal and child health care and prevention. These results provide reference for the prevention and control of malignant tumors, the system design of medical insurance and the prediction of social economic burden.