广东省人感染H7N9禽流感时空聚集性分析

摘要:目的　分析广东省人感染H7N9禽流感时空聚集性特点。方法　采用空间自相关分析和时空扫描统计量对广东省21个地市2013年4月1日到2015年3月31日人感染H7N9禽流感发病情况进行时空聚集性分析。结果　广东省人感染H7N9禽流感疫情有2个发病高峰，病例主要发生在11月至次年3月。广州和深圳地区的局部Moran's I值分别为5.68（P＜0.01）和4.30（P＝0.01），提示以这些地区为中心有病例聚集。时空分析发现在珠江三角洲和广东省东部地区存在过4个时空高发区（P＜0.01）。结论　广东省人感染H7N9禽流感疫情发生有季节性和区域高发特点，应结合时空聚集相关特点，进一步做好疫情防控。

Analysis of the temporal and spatial aggregation of human infection with H7N9 avian influenza in Guangdong Province

Abstract: Objective The study was conducted to analyze the characteristics of temporal and spatial aggregation of human infection with H7N9 avian influenza in Guangdong Province. Methods Spatial autocorrelation analysis and temporal-spatial scanning statistics were utilized to analyze the temporal and spatial aggregation of the incidences of human infection with H7N9 avian influenza between April 1st of 2013 and March 31st of 2015 in 21 cities in Guangdong Province. Results Two epidemic peaks of human infection with H7N9 avian influenza were observed, with most of the cases occurred during November through March. The local Moran's I values in Guangzhou and Shenzhen were 5.68 (P<0.01) and 4.30 (P=0.01), respectively, indicating that cases were clustered around the two regions. Temporal and spatial analysis showed that 4 high prevalence areas had been occurred in the Pearl River Delta and eastern Guangdong (P<0.01). Conclusion The epidemic of human infection with H7N9 avian influenza in Guangdong Province exhibits seasonal and regional characteristics. Therefore, epidemic prevention and control should be implemented according to characteristics associated with the temporal and spatial aggregation.