2005-2013年浙江省嘉善县的肺结核流行特征分析及预测研究

摘要:目的　分析2005-2013年嘉善县的肺结核流行特征，为制定结核病防治政策提供科学依据。方法　对2005-2013年嘉善县肺结核疫情数据进行流行病学分析，应用灰色预测模型方法对未来三年嘉善县肺结核流行趋势进行预测。结果　2005-2013年嘉善县累计报告肺结核病例2789例，年均发病率为45.18/10万；男女性别比为2.61∶1；20～岁人群发病率最高，为91.73/10万，其次为70～岁、60～岁组，发病率分别为79.66/10万，56.74/10万；职业分布以民工和农民为主，占总发病的43.71%，35.14%。应用灰色预测模型方程预测2013-2015年嘉善肺结核报告发病率分别为29.90/10万，26.96/10万，24.28/10万，2013年、2014年肺结核报告发病率实际值与预测值基本吻合。结论　嘉善县肺结核疫情呈下降趋势，但重点人群防治工作仍不能松懈，仍需加强青壮年民工和老年农民的肺结核防治工作。灰色模型预测效果较好，适用于嘉善县肺结核流行趋势的预测。

Epidemiological characteristics and prediction of tuberculosis in Jiashan County in Zhejiang Province, 2005-2013

Abstract: Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of tuberculosis in Jiashan County in 2005-2013, so as to provide scientific evidences for making measures of tuberculosis prevention and control. Methods We conducted epidemiological analysis to the epidemic data of tuberculosis in Jiashan County in 2005-2013, and predicted the epidemic trend of tuberculosis for the future three years by the gray model. Results 2789 cases were reported in 2005-2013 with the annual average incidence rate of 45.18/lakh. The sex ratio between male and female was 2.61:1. The incidence rate of the group above 20 years old was highest, which accounted for 91.73/lakh, followings were the groups above 70 years old and 60 years old, whose incidence rates were 79.66/lakh and 56.74/lakh, respectively. For the occupation distribution, migrant workers and peasants accounted for the majority with the incidence rates of 43.71% and 35.14% respectively. By using the gray model, the predicted incidence rates of tuberculosis in Jiashan County for 2013-2015 were 29.90/lakh, 26.96/lakh and 24.28/lakh respectively. The actual values and predicted values were equal basically both in 2013 and 2014. Conclusion Although the incidence rate of tuberculosis in Jiashan County decreases, prevention and control work of the key population still cannot be slacked off, and disease control and prevention of the young migrant workers and the older peasants still need to be strengthened. The gray model is applicable to predict the epidemic of tuberculosis in Jiashan County.