Rates of Progression in Diabetic Retinopathy During Different Time Periods: A systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

This meta-analysis reviews rates of progression of diabetic retinopathy to proliferative diabetic retinopathy (PDR) and/or severe visual loss (SVL) and temporal trends.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

This systematic literature review and meta-analysis of prospective studies assesses progression of retinopathy among diabetic patients without treatment for retinopathy at baseline. Studies published between 1975 to February 2008 were identified. Outcomes of interest were rates of progression to PDR and/or SVL. Pooled baseline characteristics and outcome measures were summarized using weighted averages of counts and means. Baseline characteristics and outcomes were compared between two periods: 1975–1985 and 1986–2008.

RESULTS

A total of 28 studies comprising 27,120 diabetic patients (mean age 49.8 years) were included. After 4 years, pooled incidence rates for PDR and SVL were 11.0 and 7.2%, respectively. Rates were lower among participants in 1986–2008 than in 1975–1985. After 10 years, similar patterns were observed. Participants in 1986–2008 studies had lower proportions of PDR and non-PDR at all time points than participants in 1975–1985 studies.

CONCLUSIONS

Since 1985, diabetic patients have lower rates of progression to PDR and SVL. These findings may reflect an increased awareness of retinopathy risk factors; earlier identification and initiation of care for patients with retinopathy; and improved medical management of glucose, blood pressure, and serum lipids. Differences in baseline characteristics, particularly in the prevalence and severity of retinopathy, could also have contributed to these temporal differences.Diabetes affects more than 170 million individuals worldwide (1,2), and diabetic retinopathy is the most frequent cause of visual impairment among working-age individuals (3,4). In the last 3 decades, a relative decline in rates of diabetic retinopathy has been suggested by some studies, (5–8) possibly reflecting improved patient and physician awareness, screening, and prevention, as well as better management of diabetes (9). In 1985, the Early Treatment Diabetic Retinopathy Study (ETDRS) demonstrated the effectiveness of laser photocoagulation (10,11). Systemic control of both hyperglycemia and hypertension was shown to be important in the Diabetes Control and Complications Trial (DCCT) and the UK Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) in the 1990s (12,13). Findings from these trials, other studies, and clinical practice guidelines may have led to increased public awareness to diabetes risk factors and a shorter time from onset to diagnosis, potentially altering the rates of diabetic retinopathy progression (9,14).Understanding the natural history of diabetic retinopathy is also important for estimating sample size for testing new interventions in clinical trials. Already, inadequate sample size estimations may have resulted in underpowered trials (15). Traditionally, progression rates from the ETDRS and the Wisconsin Epidemiologic Study of Diabetic Retinopathy (WESDR) were used for sample size calculations (16–22). However, these studies were conducted almost 30 years ago. Contemporary estimates for diabetic retinopathy progression are clearly needed, some of which may, in part, be provided by more recent studies, such as the Daily-Dose Consensus Interferon and Ribavirin: Efficacy of Combined Therapy (DIRECT) trial (23,24).In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we summarized the best available evidence to provide contemporary data on the clinical course of diabetic retinopathy and to examine potential differences in rates of diabetic retinopathy progression over time.