传染病暴发事件应急处置效果评价体系研究

目的 构建科学规范的传染病暴发事件应急处置效果综合评价指标体系，建立评价模型。方法 采用文献研究、德尔菲法和层次分析法，通过Excel 2007和SPSS 15.0软件，构建传染病暴发事件应急处置效果综合评价指标体系，确定各级指标权重，建立评价模型。结果 选取来自卫生管理、高校、科研及疾控部门的专家15名，进行2轮专家咨询，专家积极系数为100%，各指标专家意见变异系数均小于0.1，第二轮总体协调系数为0.478，克朗巴赫α系数= 0.965。所构建的评价指标体系包括4个一级指标、12个二级指标和56个三级指标。一级指标为疫情处置准备、疫情调查过程、疫情控制措施和疫情控制效果，权重系数分别为0.1468、0.2598、0.3492和0.2442。结论 初步构建一个能够体现传染病暴发事件应急处置效果的评价指标体系，提供作为应急处置效果的衡量工具，具备合理性和有效性。

Evaluation system of emergency disposal effect for outbreak of infectious diseases

Objective To establish an evaluation index system of emergency disposal effect for outbreak of infectious diseases and evaluate the evaluation model. Methods In the present study, comprehensive literature reviews, Delphi method and analytic hierarchy process(AHP) were used for establishing an evaluation index system of emergency disposal effect for outbreak of infectious diseases, weight determination of the evaluation index system and evaluation of the model. The data were analyzed by Excel 2007 and SPSS15.0 software. Results 15 experts from health management, universities, scientific research and disease control departments were selected. Two rounds of expert consultations were conducted. Expert positive coefficient was 100%. All the coefficient of variation of indexes were less than 0.1. Overall coordination index in the second round was 0.478. Overall Crowns Bach alpha coefficient was 0.965. The index system includes 4 first-level indicators, 12 second-level indicators and 56 third-level indicators. First-level indicators included preparation for outbreak disposal,outbreak investigation process, outbreak control measures and outbreak control effect,of which the systematic weights were0.1468, 0.2598, 0.3492 and 0.2442, respectively. Conclusion An index system for the evaluation of emergency disposal effect for outbreak of infectious diseases was preliminarily established to provide a measurement tool for emergency disposal effect,and the index system was reasonable and effective.