应用乘数法估计某地男性同性恋人群基数的研究

目的通过调查估计某地区男性同性恋(MSM)人群基数,为该地区制订艾滋病预防控制策略提供科学依据。方法应用乘数法对目标人群基数进行估计。通过指定网站统计在规定时间内登陆该网站的该地区MSM人数(r),通过对当地MSM人群活动场所内、外的调查获得同时期内登陆上述网站人数的比例(p),从而获得乘数m(1/p),r与m相乘即为估算的当地MSM人群数(N)。结果在规定的时间内登陆指定网站的MSM人群中,每月去场所1次以上者和不去场所的MSM人数分别为403人、327人,二者的乘数(m)分别为1.253和1.563,该地区MSM人群估计人数为1016人,约占当地15～49岁男性成年人口数的0.48%。结论采用乘数法估计MSM人群的基数是可行的,但应充分考虑调查样本的代表性。

Size Estimation of the Male Homosexual Population in Certain Location by Applying Multiplier Method

OBJECTIVE To investigate and estimate the size of men who have sex with men（MSM）in certain location so as to provide scientific basis for the development of HIV/AIDS prevention and control strategy. METHODS The multiplier method was applied to estimate the size of MSM. Specified MSM website was selected to count the number of visited MSM（r） in certain location with limited period of time.A questionnaire survey was conducted among local MSM population inside and outside of homosexual activity venues to obtain the proportion of MSM（p）who visited the specified website during the given period. The multiplier（m=1/p）can be calculated and compute the population size of MSM （N =r ×m）. RESULTS Among those who visited the specified website, 403 MSMs visited homosexual activity venues more than once a month, and 327 MSMs less than once a month during the given period in certain location. The multipliers were 1.253 and 1.563 respectively. The population size of MSM was estimated to be 1016 which account for 0.48% of male population aged 15 ～49. CONCLUSIONS The application of multiplier method in estimating the population size of MSM was feasible. However, the representativeness of the investigation sample population should be given full consideration.