Delphi法在评价区域性大型活动公共卫生突发事件风险发生的可能性及后果中的应用

目的探讨区域性大型活动的公共卫生突发事件风险,为科学制定公共卫生保障策略提供依据。方法选取2010年江苏省第17届运动会为研究对象,选择30名专家进行2轮Dclphi专家咨询,确定餐饮食品安全事件、公共场所健康危害事件、生活饮用水安全事件、传染病疫情事件和病媒生物引起的5大类及其所含的20种公共卫生突发事件的发生的可能性以及后果的严重性。结果 30名咨询专家的平均工龄为(21.17±7.81)a,2轮的应答率均为100%,权威系数为0.87±0.07,Kendall协凋系数分别为0.583(χ2=856.374,P0.01),0.845(χ2=1 242.280,P0.01),经卡方检验均具有统计学意义;确定了餐饮食品安全事件和公共场所健康危害事件、生活饮用水安全事件、传染病疫情事件和病媒生物引起的5类及其所含的20种公共卫生突发事件发生的可能性以及后果的严重性,其中风险发生可能性结果是餐饮食品安全事件为很有可能发生,传染病疫情为可能发生,生活饮用水安全事件和公共场所健康危害事件及病媒生物引起的公共卫生事例为不太可能发生;风险严重性结果是餐饮食品安全事件、生活饮用水安全事件、传染病疫情事件和公共场所健康危害事件为较小的,病媒生物引起的公共卫生事件为可忽略的。结论 Delphi专家咨询法是评价区域性大型活动公共卫生突发事件发生的可能性以及后果的严重性的有效方法,并将为进一步进行风险水平评估奠定基础。

Application of Delphi method for evaluating the risk possibility and the risk consequence severity of the public health emergency events during the regional large-scale activities

[Objective]To discuss the risk possibility of the public health emergency events during the regional large-scale activities,and provide scientific evidence for developing the public health security strategy.[Methods]The 17th athletic meeting of Jiangsu province was selected as the subject.A two-round Delphi consultation was held to evaluate the risk possibility and the risk consequence severity of the 4 categories and 20 kinds of public health emergency events including catering food safety events,public places health hazard events,drinking water safety events,infectious disease events and the public health events associated with pathogen of vector-born diseases among 30 experts.[Results] The average length of service of the 30 experts was(21.17±7.81)years.And the response rates of the two-round consultation from the experts were both 100%,the average coefficient of experts’ authorities was 0.87±0.07.And Kendall’s coefficient were 0.583(χ2=856.374,P<0.01),0.845(χ2=1 242.280,P<0.01),with statistical significance by chi-square test.The risk possibility and the risk consequence severity of the 5 categories and 20 kinds of public health emergency events during the regional large-scale activities was established.The risk possibility of the catering food safety events was probability,the risk possibility of the infectious disease events was possibility,the risk possibility of the public places health hazard events,the drinking water safety events and the public health events associated with pathogen of vector-born diseases were hardly possibility.Moreover,the risk consequence severity of the catering food safety events,the drinking water safety events,the public places health hazard events and the infectious disease events were low.The risk consequence severity of the public health events associated with pathogen of vector-born diseases was neglect.[Conclusion]Delphi method is an effective method to evaluate the risk possibility and the risk consequence severity of the public health emergency events during the regional large-scale activities.Furthermore,it will lay the foundation of the establishment of the risk level of the public health emergency events during the regional large-scale activities.