Single top quality embryo transfer as a model for prediction of early pregnancy outcome

BACKGROUND: Single embryo transfer (particularly of a top quality embryo) is an excellent model to correlate embryo quality in terms of morphological criteria to early pregnancy. We investigated whether this model could provide us with more information on what happens after implantation in the first trimester of pregnancy. METHODS: The outcome of 370 consecutive single top quality embryo transfers in patients younger than 38 years was analysed for pregnancy and first-trimester pregnancy loss (FTPL) before 13 weeks of gestation. Analysis was done on each cohort of embryos from which the transferred top quality embryo was selected. Serum HCG levels were measured on day 8 and day 12 after day 3 embryo transfer. The HCG index was calculated as the level of HCG on day 12/HCG on day 8. RESULTS: The pregnancy rate after single top quality embryo transfer was 51.9%. This was independent of the patients' age. FTPL, however, appeared to be age dependent: 15.4% for the whole group, 9% in patients younger than 30 years and 19% in patients above 30 years. The pregnancy rate was 50% in IVF cycles and 52% in ICSI cycles; FTPL was 19% in IVF cycles and 10% in ICSI cycles. Multiple regression analysis showed that these differences originated from age differences between both populations rather than from technique-related factors. An HCG level >or=45 IU/l on day 12 was predictive for ongoing pregnancy with 75.6% sensitivity and 100% specificity; an HCG index >or=3.5 similarly predicted ongoing pregnancy with 72.3% sensitivity and 100% specificity. CONCLUSIONS: These data show that embryo selection for transfer on day 3 can be used as an excellent tool for prediction of pregnancy but not for prediction of FTPL. The pregnancy rate of a single top quality embryo is not related to age, whereas FTPL is age dependent.