患病人数未知时患病率的点估计及区间估计方法

目的研究患病人数未知时患病率的点估计及区间估计方法。方法根据概率论和数理统计原理导出患病率和阳性检出率、实验灵敏度、特异度间的定量关系,用代数推导和医学实例验证导出的公式。结果在已知实验灵敏度、特异度条件下,导出并验证了由阳性检出率计算患病率的点估计和区间估计方法。结论在患病人数未知条件下,使用阳性检出率和检验方法灵敏度、特异度等信息,可准确估计患病率,这一方法具有重要的公共卫生学意义。

The Method of Estimation of Point and Confidence Interval of Prevalence in the Absence of Patients'''' number

Objective To study of the method of estimation of point and confidence interval of prevalence in the absence of patients'number.Methods The relationship between positive detective rate of diagnostic and screening test and prevalence was studied by probability and statistical theory and the results were validated by algebra method and medical examples.Results Under the condition of positive detective rate,sensitivity and specificity known,the equations of prevalence were deduced.Conclusion The prevalence can be obtained by combination information of positive detective rate,sensitivity and specificity of test kits in the absence of patients'number.This method has important significance in public health studies.